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2025 report card: Grading our insurance trend predictions

Last year, Guenter Kryszon shared his top 10 predictions for the insurance industry in 2025. A year later, we’re taking a look at how those predictions held up.

Published on February 12, 2026

By Guenter Kryszon

Chief Underwriting Officer, US & Bermuda  |   

5-minute read

Making predictions in the insurance industry is always a gamble, but last January in The Ins newsletter, Guenter Kryszon shared his thoughts on the “top 10” trends to watch in 2025. One year later, we’re taking a candid look at how his predictions stacked up.

PREDICTION

1: Natural disasters

"Rising natural disasters continue to threaten insurance affordability and accessibility in 2025."
  • Correct. While no large hurricanes made landfall during 2025, the industry did experience significant losses driven by wildfires and convective storms.
PREDICTION

2: Non-economic inflation

"Social inflation has been driving up liability claims."
  • Correct. With social inflation being a key driver of reserve development over the past several years, this continues to be an area that will spill over into 2026.
PREDICTION

3: Climate change and risk management

"The growing impact of climate change is prompting insurers to develop solutions that address environmental risks."
  • Correct. Wildfires in LA were a great example of the impact of climate change.
PREDICTION

4: Technological disruption

"AI will enable insurers to more efficiently ingest risks, enrich underwriting with third-party data, and better curate the areas on which underwriters will focus."
  • Partial credit. AI has been leveraged across industries, but 2025 was a year of exploration, with more tangible strategies to emerge in 2026.
PREDICTION

5: Talent acquisition and upskilling

"Attracting and retaining talent, along with continuous upskilling in areas such as AI and analytics, is becoming crucial as the industry evolves."
  • Correct. Attrition in certain segments of the industry is creeping up; and while talent remains front and center, the advances in AI and analytics will require a much broader (and deeper) skillset of those in the industry.
PREDICTION

6: Regulatory changes

"With the rise of new technologies, regulators are stepping up efforts to ensure transparency and fairness in insurance practices."
  • Correct. We have seen the emergence of regulatory changes related to AI, data privacy and climate change.
PREDICTION

7: Political landscape

"While insurance is largely regulated at the state level in the US, the possibility of increased federal insight of issues such as climate change and the solvency of systematically important financial institutions (SIFIs) needs to be carefully monitored."
  • Incorrect. Although we have seen a year of much political upheaval in the US, the widespread impacts many have forecasted will impact the insurance industry have not yet materialized.
PREDICTION

8: Systemic cyber risks

"As the world becomes more connected, there is a growing gap between what is insured, how that risk is managed and the need for more bespoke solutions."
  • Correct. We did see another large outage with Amazon Web Services, but this was fairly muted, given the resilience with AWS and hours clauses in many of the underlying policies. So fortunately, the industry was spared a significant insured event.
PREDICTION

9: Embedded insurance

"There are increasing opportunities to streamline access to and distribution of insurance through integrated solutions."
  • Partial credit. We have seen movement in this space, but not at the rate forecasted by many in the industry.
PREDICTION

10: Geopolitical tensions

"Ongoing conflicts and a fragmented global order are major concerns, which can lead to increased instability."
  • Correct. There are impacts from the Russia-Ukraine on-going war and the current escalation of tensions between the US and Venezuela.

Total (self-administered) score: B-, 80%

Some of our 2025 predictions landed right on target, like the ongoing effects of climate change, regulatory updates and the growing role of talent and AI. Others, such as the pace of embedded insurance or the direct impact of political shifts, were tougher to call.

The insurance world keeps us guessing, and that’s part of what makes it interesting. We’ll keep watching the trends, learning from what works (and what doesn’t) and sharing those lessons with you.

In the meantime, be sure to read Guenter’s insurance trend predictions for 2026.

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