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Guenter Kryszon, Chief Underwriting Officer, US & Bermuda, highlights the top 10 insurance trends of 2026 that will help shape the insurance industry's future.
Published on January 21, 2026
As we begin a new year, new narratives are emerging across the insurance industry. With 2025 trends still spreading their influence, Guenter Kryszon (CUO, US & Bermuda) returns to share his predictions for 2026’s defining trends—and what underwriters can do to stay ahead of the curve.
#1 Underwriting discipline in a softening market
After several hard market years, premium growth should decelerate to more modest levels in 2026, requiring underwriters to stay disciplined on risk selection and pricing. Industry growth is forecast around 3 – 4%—but vigilance is still needed as the market gradually tilts toward softer conditions.
#2 Cyber risk and digital threats
Cyber insurance has evolved from a niche product into a fast-growing, core segment of the P&C market. The cyber threat landscape is expanding, as well: companies of all sizes are vulnerable to ransomware attacks, data breaches and now-emerging threats like deepfake-enabled fraud and supply-chain cyber incidents, which can impact many victims at once. 2026 will see the space continue to mature, with underwriters facing both opportunities and complex challenges to assess.
#3 Geopolitical and economic uncertainty
Tariffs, supply chain disruptions and macroeconomic shifts (such as interest rates and inflation) are influencing claims costs and coverage demand. The impact of broader geographic trends is expected to continue into 2026, with one prominent factor being trade volatility: US/China trade tensions, for instance, introduced tariffs that impacted supply chains and claims costs . Also in 2025, a new 25% tariff on imported autos and parts drove up auto claim severities (i.e., cost of repairs) and disrupted pricing models for insurers.
This kind of shock underscores how sensitive insurance results can be to these decisions, and underwriters must stay agile as broader geopolitical risks and economic trends increasingly bleed into the P&C insurance outlook. Watching global events that can ripple into underwriting strategies or insurance claims is an essential step for underwriters to stay competitive in the new year.
#4 Social inflation and litigation trends
The liability side of the business faces ongoing pressure from rising claims costs due to more aggressive litigation, higher jury awards and expanding theories of liability—otherwise known as social inflation. Unchecked litigation cost inflation can quickly undermine underwriting profits, even as top-line growth looks healthy.
Underwriters must grapple with the aftermath of years of “nuclear” verdicts and pro-plaintiff legal dynamics that continue to drive up settlements and judgments. In 2026, effective management of social inflation—through disciplined pricing, managing limits and proactive claims strategies—will be essential for insurers to achieve profitability in their liability portfolios.
#5 Elevated catastrophe losses and climate impact
As we enter 2026, climate and catastrophe risks continue to remain front and center. Even without any major hurricane landfalls in the US, insurers still faced enormous catastrophe losses in 2025: California’s wildfires accounted for an estimated $40B, with severe convective storms causing $50B in insured losses.
Globally, natural catastrophes are now consistently totaling $100B+ in insured losses each year; I expect this will continue, as extreme weather events increase in frequency and severity. Climate-driven CAT events remain a top concern as losses continue to challenge the P&C industry, so 2026 will demand an even more forward-looking approach to catastrophe underwriting, pricing and mitigation.
Natural catastrophes are totaling $100B+ in insured losses each year.
#6 AI and advanced analytics in underwriting
AI tools are transforming underwriting with real-time data analysis and risk scoring. For example, machine learning models can analyze vast datasets (such as loss history, satellite imagery, telematics and social media) to identify risk patterns and recommend pricing adjustments or coverage terms with greater precision. In 2026, AI-enabled tools will be unlocking deeper insights and faster decision-making from the boardroom to the underwriting desk. Insurers can leverage these capabilities to improve risk selection (e.g., flagging subtle risk indicators that underwriters might miss) and to enable “continuous underwriting”—monitoring policy risk factors in real time throughout the policy term, rather than only at annual renewal.
#7 Regulatory scrutiny on climate and AI
Insurance regulators in the US and Bermuda are ramping up their focus on emerging risks and insurer practices, especially around climate change and the use of AI. In late 2025, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) approved an AI governance framework that encourages insurers to implement oversight, testing and consumer transparency around any AI-based decisions. The NAIC also formed an algorithmic bias working group to pilot assessments of insurers’ AI usage.
Underwriters will need to navigate a tighter regulatory environment in 2026: climate risk must be acknowledged in underwriting strategies, and AI-driven processes will face new compliance checks. We can expect more guidance on acceptable practices in 2026— for instance, ensuring that AI-driven underwriting factors don’t inadvertently proxy for protected classes (which would violate anti-discrimination laws), and that companies can explain and justify automated decisions. Those who proactively integrate these considerations will be better positioned than those who react late to regulatory mandates.
#8 Product innovation and emerging solutions
Growth in parametric covers, captives and hybrid products addresses new risks. Underwriters are crafting bespoke solutions for intangible assets, climate and tech exposures. Speed, ingenuity and integrity will be defining factors in which innovations break through the noise of 2026.
#9 Reinsurance market shifts
The reinsurance landscape in 2026 is markedly different from a few years ago, with important implications for primary insurers and underwriting strategy . After the hard reinsurance market of 2022 – 2023, characterized by scarce capacity and steep price hikes (especially for property catastrophe covers), the pendulum has swung back. The industry has seen a surge of capital into both traditional and alternative markets of reinsurance, with total global reinsurance capital now estimated well above $700B. This influx, plus two years of strong reinsurer profits, means property-catastrophe reinsurance capacity is plentiful.
Property-CAT reinsurance enters a buyer’s market with 10 – 15% rate reductions. Casualty reinsurance remains tight, so strategic reinsurance planning is vital to manage exposure and costs. This all means that, for a Chief Underwriting Officer like myself, 2026 is a year to reassess reinsurance strategy, leverage strategic reinsurer partnerships and seek to manage through the market cycle across outwards reinsurance purchasing.
Total global reinsurance capital now estimated well above $700B
#10 Industry consolidation and capital deployment
Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity is rising as carriers seek diversification and scale. This could reshape the competitive landscape in 2026; after a relatively quiet period, insurers with strong balance sheets are once again using M&A to fuel growth and diversification. Excess capital from recent profitable years (and a desire to deploy it strategically) is partly driving this trend—but at the same time, a softening rate environment in certain lines has management teams looking for alternative ways to boost earnings, such as acquiring specialty books of business or teams. Underwriters should monitor competitive shifts and integration impacts on capacity and market dynamics.
